The ECF has commissioned Ricardo to help identify which policy measures can most effectively reduce CO2 from transport by 2030, in the context of the EU discussion of the 30% CO2 reduction required under the 2030 climate goals. Ricardo has done this by modelling a series of plausible scenarios in its SULTAN framework, a tool that was originally developed for the European Commission to help with its own policy development. While by necessity fairly high level, the results give a good indication of which approaches are more or less effective. The key findings are summarised below (all are compared to the relevant 2005 baseline):
- A “high ambition” scenario of EU CO2 standards for cars, vans and trucks could reduce transport CO2 by 29% in 2030, almost achieving transport’s share of the EU’s 30% Effort Sharing goal.
- The “EU-level policies” scenario (central ambition CO2 standards for cars, vans and trucks, plus a small increase in biofuels from waste) achieves a 28% CO2 reduction by 2030, almost achieving transport’s share of the EU’s 30% Effort Sharing goal.
- The “low-ambition mixed” scenario, which combines unambitious vehicle standards with a mix of softer measures, achieves only a 23% CO2 reduction by 2030.
- Implementing the “all options” scenario, which combines EU and national policies, would achieve a 40% CO2 reduction, exceeding transport’s share of the 2030 ESD goal.
Please download the summary report here.